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The Banking Frontline 21 October 2025

Issue: 1043

 

Trump threatens China with 155% tariff from Nov 1 amid trade tensions: US President Donald Trump on Monday issued a sharp warning to China, saying his administration could impose tariffs as high as 155 percent on Chinese goods starting November 1 if a trade deal is not reachedSpeaking at the White House during a meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Trump said Beijing had been “very respectful” of Washington despite ongoing trade tensions. “They are paying tremendous amounts of money to us in the form of tariffs. As you know, they are paying 55 per cent; that’s a lot of money,” he said. Trump said that while many countries had previously taken advantage of the United States, those days were over. “A lot of countries took advantage of the US and they are not able to take advantage anymore. China’s paying 55 per cent and a potential 155 per cent come November 1st unless we make a deal,” he added.

(Moneycontrol)

RBI sold net $7.7 billion in August to arrest rupee's fall: The Reserve Bank of India sold a net of $7.7 billion in the spot foreign exchange market in August, data released on Monday showed, as the central bank looked to support the Indian rupee that fell 0.68% in the month. The RBI said in its monthly bulletin that it did not purchase any dollars and sold $7.7 billion. In July, the central bank had sold a net of $2.54 billion in the spot market. The Indian rupee fell 0.68% in August to 88.1950 against the US dollar, breaching the 88-per-dollar mark for the first time. The RBI's net outstanding forward sales stood at $53.36 billion as of end-August, compared with a net sale of $57.85 billion at the end of the previous month.

(Business Line)

India pushes to expand rupee settlement with key trade partners: India’s central bank is taking active steps to allow free-trade partners to settle transactions with it more easily in the rupee, a person familiar with the matter said, a move that could help boost the local currency over time. Initial steps include establishing direct rupee rates that don’t rely on a third currency, such as the US dollar, for cross-reference, said the person familiar with the central bank’s thinking, asking not to be named because the discussions are private. Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of India said it will establish reference rates for the UAE’s dirham and Indonesia’s rupiah, adding to existing links with the US dollar, Japanese yen, euro, and British pound. RBI is also actively developing reference rates for its neighbors and Mauritius, the person said.

(Economic Times)

 

PNB expects $1 billion hit in transition to new credit rules, CEO says: Punjab National Bank (PNB) will face an estimated 90 billion-rupee ($1.03 billion) impact as the lender transitions to a central bank-mandated credit loss framework by 2031, its chief executive said on Monday. The country's third-largest state-owned lender by market capitalisation is one of the first to disclose an estimate on the likely effect of the rules, issued by the Reserve Bank of India earlier this month, to its balance sheet. "The impact comes to around 90 billion rupees," said Ashok Chandra, PNB's managing director and CEO in an interview with Reuters. "The bank has done a rough estimate as this (new credit rules) was already in the pipeline ... I don't see any further deviation."

(Business Line)

ICICI Bank commits ?625 crore CSR funding to Tata Memorial Centre’s new cancer care facility at Navi Mumbai: ICICI Bank, along with Tata Memorial Centre (TMC), on Sunday announced commencement of construction of a new cancer care building at TMC’s Advanced Centre for Treatment, Research & Education in Cancer in Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra. Funded through the Bank’s CSR contribution of ?625 crore, the facility, which is a 11-storey building, spanning across an area of 3.4 lakh square feet, will be among India’s largest radiation therapy centres, equipped with cutting-edge cancer treatment technologies, ICICI Bank said in a statementThis is part of the Bank’s larger commitment of ?1,800 crore to TMC for setting up of three state-of-the-art cancer care buildings; one each at Navi Mumbai in Maharashtra, Mullanpur (New Chandigarh) in Punjab and Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh..

(Business Line)

HDFC Bank doesn't see AI leading to layoffs: CEO: The country's largest private sector lender HDFC Bank does not see its use of artificial intelligence leading to any layoffs, a top company official has said. The lender, which had 2.20 lakh employees as of September, is carrying out some "lighthouse experiments" in technologies, including generative AI, which will deliver its advantages in the next 18-24 months, HDFC Bank Chief Executive and Managing Director Sashidhar Jagdishan said on Saturday.

(Business Line)

Small finance banks to scale up gold loan business: Amid a muted overall credit growth in the banking sector, gold loans have emerged as the only segment witnessing strong traction. Rising gold prices have further boosted customer demand. Small finance banks are actively ramping up efforts to seize the opportunity and scale up gold loan portfolios by adding branches and deploying more employees on ground. This also marks a shift from unsecured lending to secured loan books. As per the RBI data, loans against jewellery grew 117% in August, compared with 40% a year ago. Outstanding gold loans stood at Rs 62.13 lakh crore as on August 22. As some small finance banks are facing stress from the microfinance sector, lenders are trying to diversify portfolios by adding secured products, where gold loan is an attractive segment.

(Financial Express)

 

Mutual funds invest nearly Rs 23,000 crore in IPOs in 2025, large issues dominate: Mutual funds (MFs) have invested around Rs 22,750 crore in initial public offerings (IPOs) so far in 2025, accounting for nearly 19 percent of the total Rs 1.22 lakh crore raised from the primary market this year, according to data from Prime Database. Fund houses deployed Rs 15,158 crore through anchor investments and another Rs 7,590 crore in the Qualified Institutional Buyer (QIB, non-anchor) segment between January and mid-October. Strong Systmatic Investment Plan (SIP) inflows, averaging over Rs 20,000 crore per month and overall inflows into funds have provided ample liquidity for MFs to participate in large offerings, even amid mixed foreign investor flows. The five largest IPOs of the year ; Tata Capital (Rs 15,511.9 crore), HDB Financial Services (Rs 12,500 crore), LG Electronics India (Rs 11,604.7 crore), Hexaware Technologies (Rs 8,750 crore), and Ather Energy (Rs 2,980.8 crore) -- together accounted for 42 percent of total proceeds and absorbed nearly 44 percent of MF investments.

(Moneycontrol)

Strong iPhone 17 demand pushes Apple closer to $4 trillion valuation: Apple shares surged to an all-time high on Monday, with the iPhone maker close to becoming the third company to hit a $4 trillion market valuation as data showed strong momentum for the latest iPhone. Data from research firm Counterpoint showed the iPhone 17 series outperformed its predecessor in early sales in China and the United States, with the newer models out-selling the iPhone 16 series by 14% during their first 10 days of availability in the two countries. Apple shares jumped 4.5% to $263.7, giving it a market capitalization of about $3.91 trillion and making it the second most valuable company in the world behind AI-chip giant Nvidia.

(Business Line)

Gold and silver outshine equities as Samvat 2081 draws to a close: Gold and silver extended their red-hot streak during Samvat 2081, even as equity-market returns moderated. This was in contrast with the previous Samvat, when almost all asset classes delivered stellar returns. Gold and silver jumped more than 60 per cent and 68 per cent, respectively, after rising over 30 per cent in Samvat 2080. The yellow metal sprinted from ?79,238 per 10 gram to ?1.27 lakh during Samvat 2081, while silver jumped from ?96,670 to ?1.63 lakh per kg, outrunning every major asset class. Meanwhile, the benchmark indices took a breather, with the Nifty and Sensex posting single-digit gains of 6.8 per cent and 5.8 per cent, respectively.

(Business Standard)

 

Commercial banks may not need RBI approval for floating subsidiaries: For commercial banks to float subsidiaries, approval from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may not remain mandatory, according to highly placed sources. However, if the subsidiary is for insurance or asset management, the bank must take approval from the respective regulators. The central bank is considering the matter. The move, sources said, is to make banks’ doing business easier. The regulator has been streamlining regulations for the financial sector to enhance ease of doing business, and this move is a step in that direction.

(Business Standard)

Travel, education drag outward remittances under RBI's LRS in August: India’s outward remittances under the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) declined 17.7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in August 2025 to $2.6 billion, mainly due to lower international travel and overseas education spending amid US visa restrictions. According to data released by the RBI in its August monthly bulletin, outward remittances under the scheme were $3.21 billion in August 2024. The LRS scheme, introduced in 2004, allows resident individuals to remit up to $250,000 per financial year for permissible current or capital account transactions. Initially, the limit was $25,000 before being gradually revised upwards. Outflows for international travel, the largest component under the scheme, dropped 19.6 per cent YoY to $1.62 billion. Similarly, overseas education outflows declined 23.4 per cent YoY to $319.17 million, compared to $416.4 million in August 2024.

(Business Standard)

Sebi proposes easing transfer, demat norms for pre-2019 securities: SEBI has proposed amendments to the Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements (LODR) Regulations, 2015 to facilitate the transfer and dematerialisation of securities executed before April 1, 2019. The move is aimed at providing relief to investors who missed earlier deadlines to regularise such holdings and to simplify the demat process for all security transactions. In a consultation paper, Sebi said it plans to allow one more opportunity for investors to re-lodge transfer deeds for physical securities executed before April 1, 2019. The regulator’s proposal follows recommendations from a panel comprising registrars and transfer agents (RTAs), listed companies and legal experts, which reviewed persistent transfer and demat hurdles faced by investors.

(Business Standard)


KONDRATIEV WAVE

·        A Kondratiev Wave is a long-term economic cycle in commodity prices and other prices, believed to result from technological innovation, that produces a long period of prosperity alternating with economic decline.

·        This theory was founded by Nikolai D. Kondratiev (also spelled "Kondratieff"), an agricultural economist who noticed agricultural and industrial commodity prices experienced long-term cycles. Kondratiev believed that these cycles involved periods of evolution and self-correction.

·        Kondratiev’s theory is not generally accepted by economists and can easily be explained as a statistical illusion created by his transformations of the raw data.


RBI KEY RATES

Repo Rate: 5.50%

SDF: 5.25%

MSF /Bank Rate: 5.75%

CRR: 3.50%

SLR: 18.00%

FOREX RATES (RBI REF. RATE)

INR / 1 USD : 87.7861

INR / 1 GBP : 117.8499

INR / 1 EUR : 102.3972

INR /100 JPY: 58.3000

EQUITY INDEX

Sensex:  84363.37 (+411.18)

NIFTY:    25843.15 (+133.30)

Bnk NIFTY: 58033.20 (+319.85)



Police Commemoration Day: Observed in India to honor police personnel who have died in the line of duty. October 21 is significant for India as Police Commemoration Day to honor police personnel who died in a 1959 ambush by Chinese troops.    

Historical events: Internationally, this date marks the 1943 establishment of the Provisional Government of Free India by Subhas Chandra Bose, and the 1959 opening of the Guggenheim Museum in New York. In science, it was the day the modern definition of the meter was established in 1983, and Thomas Edison created a functional light bulb in 1879.

 

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